WEEKLY MARKET RESEARCH REPORT: January 26-30, 2026 | Scrolls

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3 days ago
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by Karnivesh | 2026

The last week of January 2026 was not about excitement it was about control.

After a sharp correction earlier in the month, Indian equity markets entered the week carrying two emotions at once: relief that the fall had stopped, and caution ahead of the Union Budget. What followed was a textbook example of how mature markets behave when a big event looms not by panicking, not by chasing returns, but by waiting patiently and repositioning quietly.

The Nifty 50 began the week just above the psychologically important 25,000 level, a zone many feared might break after the previous week’s sell-off. It didn’t. Instead, buyers showed up exactly where they were supposed to. Slowly, methodically, the index climbed back to 25,320, ending the week up 1.09%. Not a dramatic rally but a meaningful one.

This was not a market driven by headlines or hype. It was driven by intent.

A Market That Refused to Panic

Volatility told the real story. The India VIX fell sharply by over 15%, signaling that fear had drained out of the system. Daily price swings narrowed, volumes dropped, and traders stopped forcing trades. The market was sending a clear message: “We are stable, but we are not in a hurry.”

Each trading day added a new layer to this story.

Monday opened quietly, shaped by holiday-thinned volumes.
Tuesday brought the first sign of confidence as institutional buyers stepped in.
Wednesday saw smart rotation into defensive sectors.
Thursday was pure indecision—markets froze ahead of the Budget.
Friday ended with mild profit booking, not fear-driven selling.

Across five days, there was no emotional spike, no speculative excess, no breakdown. Just a slow rebuild of confidence.

The Quiet Power of Institutions

Behind the scenes, institutions were doing the heavy lifting. After weeks of relentless selling, foreign investors finally paused and then turned selective buyers. At the same time, domestic institutions never left the field, consistently absorbing selling pressure.

Together, FPIs and DIIs brought in nearly ₹3,800 crore of net inflows during the week. This steady support explains why markets refused to fall even on weak days. India’s market structure has changed domestic money is now the anchor, not foreign flows alone.

Rotation, Not Retreat

If there was one theme that defined the week, it was rotation.

Money didn’t leave equities it simply moved to safer corners. Banking stocks led from the front, supported by strong earnings, credit growth, and expectations of continued government capex. FMCG and pharma attracted defensive allocations. Meanwhile, IT and auto stocks lagged not because their stories were broken, but because global uncertainty made them less attractive for now.

This was not fear. This was risk management.

Technically Calm, Structurally Strong

From a technical lens, the market looked reassuring. The Nifty formed a bullish hammer near its long-term support, momentum indicators stayed neutral, and Bank Nifty confirmed a breakout above 60,000. The structure wasn’t overheated, nor fragile it was coiled.

In simple terms: the market wasn’t ready to explode upward yet, but it was no longer vulnerable to collapse.

All Eyes on the Budget

As the week ended, one thing was clear the market had done everything it could without policy clarity. Earnings were mostly priced in. Global cues were stable. Liquidity was supportive. Now, the baton passed to the Union Budget.

Investors weren’t asking for miracles. They were watching three things closely:

Fiscal discipline
Commitment to capital expenditure
Relief (or lack thereof) for globally exposed sectors

Depending on these signals, the next move could be decisive.

The Bigger Picture

This week wasn’t exciting but it was important.

It marked the transition from correction to consolidation, from fear to discipline, and from reactive trading to thoughtful positioning. Markets proved they could hold key levels, absorb bad news, and wait calmly for clarity.

For long-term investors, this was a reminder that the best entries often come during boring weeks. For traders, it was a warning that volatility was being compressed and that compression rarely lasts forever.

The market didn’t move loudly this week. It moved wisely.

And now, with the Budget at the door, the next chapter is ready to be written.